2023年2月24日--尽管提出了希望，但承诺却远未实现。
简介
十年前，即2013年2月24日，11个国家和4个国际和区域机构，即联合国（UN）、非洲联盟（AU）、大湖区问题国际会议（ICGLR）和南部非洲发展共同体（SADC），也被称为 "共同领导人"，签署了《关于刚果民主共和国和该地区和平、安全与合作的亚的斯亚贝巴框架协议》，在几十年的冲突、不稳定、剥削和痛苦之后，为更美好的明天带来了希望。
事实上，这是第一个和平倡议，旨在结束二战以来最致命的冲突，并解决刚果民主共和国（DRC）东部的暴力和反复发生的战争的根本原因。刚果国家、该地区国家和国际社会似乎致力于通过全面的方法实现刚果民主共和国和大湖区的持久和平。
，在刚果民主共和国、邻国和国际社会的各种承诺之外，还提出了解除本国和外国武装团体的战斗力和复员的目标，并重申了国际法的基本原则。
各国和国际社会根据《框架协议》做出的承诺
刚果政府承诺深入改革安全部门，巩固国家在该国东部省份的权力，推动国家机构改革。该地区各国同意尊重该国的主权和完整，不干涉其内部事务，不容忍武装团体或向其提供援助，加强区域合作，不庇护或保护参与战争罪、危害人类罪、种族灭绝罪或侵略罪的人，并通过该地区的司法合作促进司法。
对于国际社会，联合国安理会承诺继续关注支持刚果民主共和国和大湖区长期稳定的重要性。为支持这一承诺，联合国刚果民主共和国稳定特派团（MONUSCO）的任务得到了加强，其干预旅被授权以任何必要手段制止武装暴力，并任命了一名特使，以鼓励签署方履行其在《框架协议》下的义务，并协调一个全面的政治进程，为解决冲突的根本原因找到持久的解决方案。
此外，世界银行集团和国际合作伙伴，包括欧洲联盟（欧盟）、比利时、美利坚合众国、法国和英国，也再次承诺将继续参与巩固这一和平与发展战略。
此外，《框架协议》规定了一个区域后续机制，即主要的内部控制机构，每年在国家元首和政府首脑一级评估签署国和 "共同赞助者"（11+4机制）在执行承诺方面取得的进展，评估的依据是详细的标准和实现具体行动和具体目标的精确时间表。刚果民主共和国还建立了一个国家机制，以监督在国家一级做出的承诺的执行情况。
最后，民间社会，特别是妇女和青年组织，参与评估进展情况，以确保有效执行这项 "希望协议 "的后续机制，正如美国总统巴拉克-奥巴马所说，该协议不能仅仅是 "一纸空文"，也不能仅仅是外交官和机构的关注。
未能履行承诺及其后果
1.在国际社会层面
在联合国的主持下，在强大的国际政治意愿的推动下，《框架协议》签署10年后，我们可以得出什么结论？
虽然国家受到分裂企图的威胁，正在经历政治合法性危机，面临着武装团体活动的重新抬头，以及又一场对人道主义和人权状况产生巨大影响的侵略和占领战争，但刚果的悲剧--死亡人数、被强奸妇女和流离失所者人数以百万计--似乎不再是国家共同体议程的首要议题。
联刚稳定团的任务期限在2022年12月得到延长，但它正在考虑于2024年撤出，而不安全状况正在加剧，法治没有得到恢复，民主也没有得到巩固。我们感到遗憾的是，尽管安全理事会根据《联合国宪章》第七章对其进行了授权，但联刚稳定团部队和干预旅没有单独或与刚果安全部队合作开展足够有效的行动，没有采取更有效的行动和利用一切必要措施来遏制刚果民主共和国东部仍然普遍存在的不安全气氛，而且这些部队没有消除刚果和外国武装团体构成的威胁，这使刚果公众感到非常沮丧。
此外，尽管秘书长特使办公室通过了 "联合国大湖区建设和平、预防和解决冲突战略"，但所做的努力既没有促成一个导致持久和平的全面进程，也没有调动各方的真正政治意愿和诚意，以有效落实2013年在亚的斯亚贝巴做出的承诺。
然而，在签署《框架协议》时任命了大湖区问题特使的美利坚合众国和欧盟，并没有延长这些重要的任务，这表明它们在外交上脱离了这个殉难的地区，该地区仍然对国际和平与安全构成威胁，并有可能在全球经济和能源转型中发挥主导作用。
正是在这种背景下，挪威难民理事会（NRC）在2021年国际忽视排名中把刚果民主共和国排在第一位，该排名基于三个标准：缺乏国际政治意愿、缺乏媒体关注和缺乏国际援助。 此外，根据NRC的研究，DRC多年来一直在十大最被忽视的危机名单上。
如果考虑到人道主义局势是世界上最引人注目的局势之一，三分之一的人口在挨饿，四分之一的人口需要人道主义援助和保护，境内流离失所者的人数--近600万，其中大多数是妇女和儿童--是非洲最高的。
尽管当地目前的局势，各国在《框架协议》下作出的承诺发生了什么？很明显，《框架协议》中的承诺远远没有得到履行。
2. At the level of the Congolese state
The DRC has failed to take concrete action to initiate a thorough reform of the security sector, including cleaning up the police, army and intelligence services, institutions that remain infiltrated at all levels following previous peace agreements that integrated elements of armed rebel groups, both Congolese and foreign, into the institutions of the Republic under the principle of inclusiveness.
The lack of comprehensive reform of the Congolese security and defense forces has prevented the state from deploying its authority in large parts of the country and has left the nation in a weak position to ensure security and protect civilians, and unable to guarantee national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The justice and prison sectors are also among the institutional reforms that have not been completed but are of primary importance for building the rule of law, thus contributing to the continuation of the culture of corruption and impunity and undermining citizens’ confidence in its institutions.
In addition, the establishment of a state of siege since May 2021 in the provinces of Ituri and North Kivu has not only failed to neutralize the capacity of armed groups to cause harm – notably the ADF, CODECO and FDLR – but has paradoxically contributed to an increase in insecurity and a doubling of the number of abuses committed against civilians. Moreover, this regime, which is supposed to be exceptional but has been renewed every 15 days for almost two years, is leading to a growing number of human rights violations and a narrowing of the space for democratic freedoms, mortgaging the participation of the citizens of two of the country’s most densely populated provinces in the general elections scheduled for December 2023. Thus, we advocate the end of the state of siege and the return to public management by the services of the civil administration.
Faced with the failure to secure the provinces in conflict, the Congolese authorities entered into bilateral security cooperation with Uganda and Burundi, which contributed to the deterioration of relations with Rwanda and a resumption of its policy of armed interventionism. Second, the DRC joined the East African Community (EAC), an organization composed largely of neighboring countries that are responsible for the plundering of natural resources, the commission of the most serious crimes and the destabilization of the DRC.
We warned national and international authorities in good time about the dangers of this firefighter’s strategy of seeking to stabilize the country with the help of destabilizing states. However, Kinshasa has pursued this policy of outsourcing its security to third countries that are much more motivated by geostrategic and economic interests than by the protection of civilians. Thus, the Congolese state has committed itself to a new sub-regional security cooperation by accepting the intervention of a regional EAC force to put an end to the activism of armed groups, which will therefore be in the same theater of operations as the UN force and its intervention brigade, which support the national security and defense forces under the authority of the Security Council.
This new force, which is still being deployed, underfunded and poorly coordinated with MONUSCO, is leading to a worrying over-militarization in eastern Congo and is akin to a new occupation force, as evidenced by the fact that the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) are being denied entry into the territories occupied by the March 23 Movement (M23) and placed under the control of the regional force, in defiance of Congolese sovereignty.
The balance of power, unfavorable to the DRC due to the weakness of its military response, has led to diplomatic initiatives at the regional level, resulting in the Nairobi process, under the auspices of the EAC, and the Luanda process, under the auspices of the AU, where the Congolese authorities are forced to negotiate with aggressor states and engage in dialogue with national and foreign armed groups.
In this context of heightened insecurity, over-militarization of the region, and ongoing negotiations, armed groups are not inclined to surrender their weapons because they are aware that the scale and level of cruelty of the crimes they commit with impunity against civilians opens up opportunities at the negotiating table. In addition, elements of the armed groups have shown a lack of confidence in joining the new government DDR program following the appointment of a former rebel with close ties to the M23 as program coordinator, jeopardizing the implementation of these important non-military measures.
3. At the level of the countries of the region
Non-compliance by countries in the region has been the norm rather than the exception, and bad faith has characterized the follow-up to the implementation of the Framework Agreement, particularly by the regime in Kigali. Neighbouring countries have continued with impunity to violate basic principles of international law by violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the DRC and by intervening directly and/or supporting armed groups to plunder and exploit the mineral resources in the east of the country, much of which reaches the world market via Kampala, Kigali and Bujumbura, in complicity with a greedy and corrupt Congolese elite. This economic war imposed on the Congolese is thus prolonged and aggravates an already dramatic humanitarian situation.
This catastrophic picture has been further exacerbated since the end of 2021 by the resurgence of the M23, which was defeated in 2013 but is again supported directly and indirectly by the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF), notably by providing arms, ammunition and uniforms, as attested by numerous investigations, including by the UN Group of Experts. The RDF not only continues to intervene directly in the DRC, but also provides direct support to an armed group that has occupied large parts of the strategic mineral-rich province of North Kivu for almost 9 months, obstructing access to humanitarian aid and waging war not only on the FARDC but also on UN peacekeepers! This collusion between the RDF and the M23, which is under UN and EU sanctions, illustrates the Rwandan authorities’ contempt for the spirit and letter of the Framework Agreement, despite the commitments they made ten years ago.
This war of aggression and occupation has already had dramatic humanitarian consequences, with women and children paying the heaviest price and constituting the overwhelming majority of displaced and persecuted people fleeing fear and terror. Among other daily abuses in eastern Congo, the UN, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International documented mass atrocities committed in late November 2022 by M23 elements with Rwandan army support in Kishishe and Bambo, less than 100 km north of Goma, in Rutshuru Territory, North Kivu, in a campaign of murder, rape, abduction, looting and destruction. If brought to trial, these acts could be qualified as war crimes or even crimes against humanity.
The human toll of these massacres remains difficult to determine in the absence of serious national or international judicial investigations, but the number of unarmed people summarily executed by gunshot or stabbing can be counted in the dozens, and Amnesty International has documented through interviews with survivors and eyewitnesses 66 cases of rape, most of which were gang rapes and sometimes in the presence of the children of the raped women. In addition, there is consistent evidence that M23 commanders visited local health centers and looted available stocks of condoms before carrying out their campaign of terror, demonstrating that these mass and systematic rapes as a method of warfare are premeditated and planned by the military and political hierarchy of the occupying forces in order to terrorize the population into displacement or subjugation and to capture their resources.
Uganda and Burundi have also continued to intervene directly or through armed groups to seize Congolese resources and consolidate their national and geostrategic interests.
In addition to their repeated attacks on national integrity and sovereignty and their support for various armed groups, the countries of the region have not honored their commitments to fight impunity.
Countries in the region committed to facilitate the administration of justice through enhanced regional judicial cooperation and not to harbor or provide protection to those involved in the most serious international crimes in order to end impunity for the perpetrators and instigators of the armed violence that has plagued eastern Congo for more than a quarter century.
Despite the Nairobi Declaration on Justice and Governance and the existence of the Great Lakes Judicial Cooperation Network, it is clear that the political will of the states concerned is lacking to bring to justice the alleged perpetrators of international crimes committed in the DRC. Indeed, to date, no prosecution by neighboring third countries has been initiated against those involved in the commission of war crimes, crimes against humanity, or even acts of genocide committed in the martyred provinces of the eastern part of the Congo. For example, Laurent Nkunda, former warlord and commander of the National Congress for the Defense of the People, the armed group from which the M23 emerged, is in Rwanda and has never been held accountable to Rwandan justice, even though the Security Council has called on all parties in various resolutions to bring to justice those responsible for international crimes committed in the DRC.
Thus, the Congolese population has been plunged into suffering, fear and exile due to the continued looting and illegal exploitation of mineral resources, the persistence and even the renewed activism of armed groups and negative forces acting as proxies for neighboring countries the ever-increasing number of displaced persons and refugees and its alarming humanitarian impact, and the widespread impunity enjoyed by the perpetrators and sponsors of the most serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, including the use of sexual violence as a method of war.
Moreover, despite regional efforts to de-escalate the crisis through the Nairobi and Luanda processes, these diplomatic and political initiatives have failed to “silence the guns” and have not resulted in the expected de-escalation: while calls for a cessation of hostilities and withdrawal from the occupied territories are reiterated at every summit, no ultimatum or cease-fire agreement reached by regional heads of state has been followed through.
On the contrary, the M23 is extending its influence, continuing its exactions against the civilian population and continuing to advance to the gates of Goma, reviving the spectre of the crisis provoked by the same actors in 2012 when the capital of North Kivu Province and its surroundings were occupied by the M23, and thus highlighting a political impasse at the regional level and the limits of the subsidiarity principle.
摆脱危机的方法
如何走出这种僵局？如何才能打破暴力和有罪不罚的恶性循环？
正如教皇方济各在最近访问刚果（金）时所说的那样。"我们不能习惯几十年来流淌在刚果民主共和国的鲜血，在许多人不知情的情况下杀害数百万人。现在确实是让刚果的悲剧摆脱冷漠和忽视的时候了。
1.需要进行国际政治动员，采取制裁和有条件的援助政策
正是在这种情况下，我们欢迎美利坚合众国、比利时、法国、德国、西班牙和欧盟的公报，其中回顾了刚果民主共和国的完整和主权的重要性，谴责了M23所犯下的罪行，并呼吁卢旺达停止支持，以帮助解决北基伍的危机。
我们还欢迎和平与安全理事会最近在非盟国家元首和政府首脑第36届常会之际采取的立场，以及其关于动员 "共同赞助 "机构紧急振兴《框架协议》的相关呼吁。
我们还注意到 "欧盟大湖区更新战略。欧洲理事会于2月20日通过了 "支持将不稳定的根源转变为共同的机会"，该战略回顾了该地区的战略重要性及其对整个非洲大陆的潜在推动作用。这项新战略强调寻求持久和平，尊重国家主权和完整，以及将自然资源的贩运转变为负责任的贸易和可持续发展的工具的重要性。我们呼吁欧盟任命一名大湖区特使，以最大限度地发挥欧洲在该地区这一新的战略参与的潜力。
此外，我们还向那些寻求为东刚果和平作出贡献的政治家、外交官和机构领导人提出一个简单的建议。基加利政权既不理解也不尊重你们的呼吁、要求和劝告。当务之急是，只要卢旺达支持M23和攻击刚果民主共和国，美国、欧盟、法国、英国和其他伙伴就必须采取政治和经济制裁，暂停对卢旺达的军事援助。这是唯一能带来具体效果并结束卢旺达对刚果东部地区干涉的语言。
我们还呼吁世界银行、非洲开发银行和其他多边和双边伙伴以有条件的政策为指导，使国际援助从此与严格遵守《框架协议》下的承诺和尊重人权挂钩。
2.退出东非共同体和区域部队
鉴于目前谈判进程的失败和政治僵局，我们支持对区域外交进行审查，主张刚果民主共和国退出东非共同体及其区域部队，并呼吁在一位来自非邻国的中立非洲总统的主持下进行调解，以启动一个新的动态，实现政治解决。此外，我们呼吁根据安全理事会第1325号和第2250号决议，让妇女和青年更多地参与政治和建设和平进程。
此外，我们呼吁基加利政权与卢民主力量进行卢旺达人之间的对话，以便为这个在卢旺达种族灭绝的废墟上出现的武装团体找到一个持久的解决方案。25年多来，这支民兵在刚果东部造成了许多苦难，并继续被基加利政权用作在刚果东部进行军事干预的借口，而在刚果和卢旺达部队采取各种联合行动以消灭他们之后，卢民主力量的残余分子已不再像过去那样对卢旺达的安全构成严重威胁。
3.透明和负责任的矿产资源贸易
经济最发达的国家正在计划向绿色能源过渡，并朝着经济去碳化的方向发展。因此，在刚果东部发现的大量金属，如锂和钴，将变得更加令人垂涎，因为它们被证明对这种绿色转型至关重要。刚果（金）的战争主要是经济性的，类似于重大的跨国犯罪，在过去的25年里，卢旺达和乌干达与跨国公司和某些刚果政治家和士兵勾结，成为主要的参与者。因此，当务之急是审查矿业治理，结束对刚果民主共和国战略矿产的开采和非法掠夺，这是暴力和冲突的根源。
遏制作为刚果民主共和国东部社区痛苦和严重侵犯人权的基础的战争经济，需要结束刚果和外国武装团体与矿业公司、走私和贩运网络以及不透明的跨境供应链之间的联系。例如，非政府组织 "全球见证 "最近的一项研究表明，自2013年以来，"卢旺达出口的矿物中只有10%实际上是在其领土上开采的，其余90%都是从刚果民主共和国非法引进的。"然后，这些 "带血的矿物 "通过香港、迪拜甚至曼谷出口到世界市场。
因此，如果没有透明和负责任的东刚果矿产资源贸易，确保矿产开采不与童工、对妇女的性剥削或武装团体的活动挂钩，就不可能有清洁和可持续的能源转型。我们的目标是确保这个对地球至关重要的绿色转型对解决气候危机所需的矿物被开采出来的社区和国家来说是公平、公正、可持续和无冲突的。因此，确保从开采地到消费者在世界各地商店购买的成品的完全可追溯性是当务之急。
此外，有必要对原材料的转化进行大规模投资，以缩短矿区和矿物转化地之间的联系。这将使我们更容易控制整个产业链及其参与者，生产国将能够产生真正的附加值。
此外，还必须在国家、区域和国际层面建立具有约束力的控制和问责机制。最后，应在双赢的基础上审查刚果当局与某些国家和非国家行为者在采矿业缔结的不公平合同。
4.司法的必要性
由于近几十年来寻求政治和军事解决方案的各种尝试都未能稳定国家和保护平民，现在是强调预防冲突、过渡时期司法和建设和平之间密切联系的时候了。有罪不罚的文化助长了冲突的复发和暴行的重现。我们不能继续对四分之一世纪以来在刚果（金）犯下的大规模罪行视而不见。正义是结束刚果（金）暴力的拼图中缺少的一块。 没有正义，没有赔偿，没有真相，没有旨在防止最严重罪行再次发生的体制改革，就不会有持久的和平。只有在正义、赔偿和真相之后，才能实现宽恕与和解。
这就是我们向刚果当局和国际、区域和双边合作伙伴宣传的意义，即通过一项全面的刚果民主共和国过渡时期司法国家战略，该战略应考虑到冲突的国际层面和许多第三国对冲突的干预，在过去30年里，这些冲突使刚果民主共和国陷入悲痛之中。在需要优先考虑的机构改革中，我们坚持安全部门改革的战略重要性：这是刚果国防和安全部队能够有效行使其摄政职能、在整个领土上部署国家权力并捍卫领土完整和国家主权的必要条件。此外，我们与民间社会和受害者协会一起，主张建立刚果民主共和国国际刑事法庭和/或专门的混合法庭，以起诉和审判1990年代中期以来在刚果民主共和国犯下的战争罪、危害人类罪和种族灭绝行为的肇事者和煽动者。
为过去和现在的罪行伸张正义的这一当务之急，不仅是在刚果民主共和国和大湖区实现和解与和平共处的先决条件，也是巩固法治的特权手段，是确保善治、打击地方腐败和创造有利投资环境的先决条件。
5.巩固民主
2023年12月，刚果国家正在为其近代史上的第四个选举周期做准备，新的大选将以总统、立法、省级和地方投票的形式举行，只有举行可信、透明、包容和和平的选举，民主交接才有可能。虽然超越导致暴力循环和政治及安全不稳定的反复出现的合法性危机至关重要，但选举前的环境是紧张的。事实上，全国独立选举委员会缺乏独立性和宪法法院的政治化--负责组织选举和选举上诉的机构--对民主空间、言论和结社自由的限制，以及选民登记过程的混乱和延迟，增加了即将举行的选举的冲突风险。
正是在这种情况下，我们呼吁刚果民主共和国的战略伙伴利用其掌握的所有杠杆，确保即将举行的选举在宪法规定的最后期限内举行，并尊重人民的主权意愿，并有国家和国际观察员在场，特别是支持平行计算结果，并要求逐个投票站公布结果，以确保它们反映投票箱的真相。
总结
希望协议 "十周年是在刚果国家处于危险之中的关键时刻。刚果（金）正无数次直接或通过代理人遭受侵略战争，威胁着国家主权和领土完整以及过去25年国际投资的微薄收益。
如果不解决暴力和不稳定的根本原因，悲惨的人类代价将继续存在。现在是时候让刚果的悲剧摆脱国际社会的冷漠、不作为和串通一气的沉默了，国际社会助长了安全、人道主义和政治局势的腐烂，对尊重和保护人权产生了灾难性的影响。 刚果民主共和国及其合作伙伴必须解决作为该国东部地区持续冲突背后驱动力的主要结构性原因，即自然资源的开采和非法贸易以及有罪不罚的文化。
刚果政府必须立即进行体制改革，以确保尊重法治，培养人权文化，并恢复对各机构，包括负责提供安全和司法的机构的信心。
虽然国际社会在过去一年正确地团结起来，制裁俄罗斯邻国对乌克兰的侵略和占领，并提供一切必要的支持和援助，但我们呼吁国内和国际的公众舆论和决策者利用一切必要手段，毫不拖延地阻止刚果民主共和国东部新的暴力升级。
非洲心脏地带的稳定对国际和平与安全至关重要，对全球经济和能源转型也是如此。当务之急是结束破坏刚果民主共和国稳定的背后国家利用制裁和援助条件的制度进行的惯性侵略。刚果民主共和国的伙伴国家和机构，特别是《框架协议》的共同提案国，不能再容忍这些公然违反国际法的行为而不做出反应。
如果我们想在国际上保持法治受到尊重，就必须结束选择性的愤慨、可变的几何人道主义和双重标准，这些都导致国际机构和多边主义缺乏信任和可信度。如果我们不能应用公平和一致的原则，我们的集体安全体系将面临真正的危险，失望的非洲街头将转向普京。
苦难是普遍的，对尊严和正义的渴求也是普遍的。刚果人的血已经流得太多了。 与所有民族一样，刚果民族也有自决权和和平生活的权利。 虽然挑战重重，但通往和平的道路是可能的。它将需要更多的安全，在世界贸易中更多的责任，更多的正义和更多的民主。我相信，只要刚果（金）和国际社会有新的政治意愿，我们就能达到目的。
Denis Mukwege
2018年诺贝尔和平奖